Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 82782.606632 87391.895592 92000.607442 96951.234480 102115.338488 107339.946069 113021.972775
2025-02-16 74493.176481 81500.192667 88704.663703 96655.570486 105173.793380 114015.646751 123876.831646
2025-02-23 69075.785595 77732.345820 86829.754055 97082.194195 108293.289942 120158.734715 133644.496949
2025-03-02 64688.113014 74547.330213 85100.912753 97203.620859 110663.412910 125137.154733 141841.602361
2025-03-09 61885.666555 72799.749633 84668.863432 98484.472322 114070.824643 131057.194656 150914.524357
2025-03-16 58524.873207 70175.236843 83032.112251 98203.906234 115545.659921 134676.210736 157300.501363
2025-03-23 56652.839577 69096.206424 83007.823810 99623.669073 118834.925060 140253.393358 165838.839728
2025-03-30 54698.374862 67792.728120 82612.267151 100513.629666 121433.161839 144985.981446 173382.435270
2025-04-06 52523.374907 66112.855746 81674.550547 100676.502309 123108.588003 148599.839783 179602.431366
2025-04-13 50424.561883 64421.745979 80631.642854 100629.737076 124465.881251 151790.932096 185297.180497
2025-04-20 49320.282218 63864.699099 80880.242131 102067.141730 127538.364567 156966.494430 193314.874867
2025-04-27 48277.085069 63326.083144 81103.791158 103435.393245 130502.706136 162006.259552 201185.479496
2025-05-04 46887.488478 62327.496768 80750.250325 104101.661780 132641.520634 166108.725102 208019.683169
2025-05-11 45244.898466 60955.953482 79891.222841 104109.638577 133955.501202 169215.361717 213675.235022
2025-05-18 43960.409002 59984.399147 79481.282349 104630.940075 135866.675592 173026.203139 220182.269267
2025-05-25 42574.739346 58832.263808 78800.268001 104774.401270 137281.680300 176218.100309 225938.553926
2025-06-01 41845.005599 58491.292855 79111.821778 106138.413361 140196.217498 181239.571283 233943.856028
2025-06-08 40398.104680 57170.050756 78137.119272 105840.968879 141008.780454 183665.329237 238765.773985
2025-06-15 39836.770160 56985.814595 78595.594646 107349.484221 144081.883913 188885.578873 247054.099498
2025-06-22 39061.333421 56489.426022 78628.265950 108294.895972 146434.892702 193216.304175 254261.363916
2025-06-29 37995.322533 55570.503475 78082.125083 108467.907305 147787.441108 196291.710637 259912.744067
2025-07-06 36887.547432 54560.974062 77386.303637 108418.234427 148833.299563 198970.654398 265069.047075
2025-07-13 36476.259438 54482.103889 77903.749629 109944.931573 151906.243495 204214.053462 273474.771026